Shock
Temps de lecture : min
On 28 February, a new conflict erupted in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
From the very first day, Iran’s retaliatory strikes led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting disruption to global energy supply chains plunged the world into what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has described as “the largest energy supply shock in history”.
Before the conflict, between 100 and 120 vessels of all types transited the Strait of Hormuz each day. Today, that number has fallen to just one or two—mainly tankers carrying Iranian crude. This forced halt in maritime traffic has caused major disruptions not only to energy supply chains but also to shipments of key commodities such as methanol, ammonia, naphtha, polyolefins, sulphur and helium. According to the IEA’s 12 March report, the closure of the strait and the bombings have forced Gulf countries (primarily Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia) to cut production by more than 10 million barrels per day (8 mb/d of crude and 2 mb/d of condensates and LNG), and to shut down 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region.
Following the announcement of a two‑week ceasefire on 8 April, hopes for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were dashed by the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend. Traffic is expected to remain extremely limited in the coming days following the blockade announced by President Trump. Even if a positive outcome were to emerge soon, returning oil and gas production to pre‑crisis levels—those of February 2026—would take time, requiring the restoration of fields and the reconstruction of damaged production infrastructure, particularly in the gas sector.
One month after the start of the crisis, the first monthly data capturing its impact on economic indicators have been released, confirming the magnitude of the shock—especially on price dynamics. In the euro area, the 6.8% monthly increase in the energy component of the consumer price index is the second‑largest rise recorded since the series began in 1996, surpassed only by the spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022. For the overall index, the 1.2% monthly increase ranks seventh over the same period.
In the United States, where data go back to 1970, the shock is simply unprecedented: the 11.9% monthly rise in the energy component is the largest ever recorded. The impact on the headline index is more diluted, with March 2026 ranking 25th out of nearly 671 observations. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding how far this shock will spread across other price components, though a prolonged crisis would clearly heighten inflationary risks.
Another key factor central banks will scrutinise in determining their next steps is the impact of the shock on the slowdown in economic activity—still difficult to read at this stage. Striking the right balance between patience and action may prove a particularly delicate choice.
Written by
Frédéric KLEISS
Head of Research
